Inflation Still a Concern

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the Bank of England base rate at 4.25% following its latest review on 19 June 2025.

Their decision was not a great surprise. While inflation had reduced in the earlier part of the year, the current figures show that inflationary pressures continue to be felt.

What’s happening with inflation?

According to the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics, the main rate of inflation decreased from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in the year to May.

Looking at the figures behind the headline rate shows that food prices have increased for the third month in a row. At 4.4%, this represents the highest inflation rate for food since February 2024.

Some feel that these increases are because businesses are passing on the costs of April’s increase in employer’s national insurance.

However, this is not the only factor at play. Prices for chocolate have increased by 17.7% in the year to May. This is primarily due to bad harvests in areas that produce cocoa meaning that stocks of chocolate have been low and pushing prices up.

The figures showed some good news though in the form of cheaper travel prices.

What’s Next for Inflation and the Economy?

The MPC considers that inflation will now remain at this level for the rest of the year before falling back towards 2% next year.

The MPC also noted their concerns over a softening in the labour market and continued global economic uncertainty, referencing the recent escalation in the conflict in the Middle East.

What this means for your business

• Borrowing costs remain steady for now. The MPC’s comments suggest that further rate cuts could be made later in the year and lenders may respond to that by dropping their rates, even in advance of any future cut.
• No change for returns on savings. You should review any cash reserves you hold to ensure they’re earning interest.
• The inflation figures suggest that costs remain a concern, and this is likely to remain the case for the rest of the year. So, it could be important to plan conservatively for the coming months.

The Bank continues to take gradual, cautious steps when it comes to interest rates. The next rate review will take place on 7 August 2025.

If you’d like to review your funding or cash flow strategy, we’re happy to help.